Demonstration record—not live consumer evidence.
Product outcome / Hair styling tools
Luma Arc Heat Brush
Influenced by @mayarowan · Affiliate relationship disclosed
“Cuts styling time by at least 40% for thick, shoulder-length or longer hair.”
Final claim decision
Claim did not hold up
- Observed result
- 37.1% versus ≥40%
- Threshold certainty
- Not supported
- Evidence strength
- Emerging
- Uncertainty interval
- 33.3%–38.2%
The point estimate was below the threshold.
Not supported — upper interval bound is below the predefined threshold.
Independent of threshold certainty
Paired bootstrap 95%
Analysis population
Cohort flow
| Stage | Records |
|---|---|
| Endpoint completed | 184 |
| Completed and purchase verified | 126 |
| Missing paired measurement | −14 |
| Protocol exclusions | −3 |
| Manipulation-review exclusions | −0 |
| Primary analysed cohort | 109 |
Audit and provenance
Primary calculation
Baseline cohort median: 35 minutes · Day-30 cohort median: 22 minutes · (35 − 22) / 35 = 37.1%
Evidence-strength calculation
| Requirement | Observed | Required | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualifying cohort | 109 | ≥25 | Met |
| Endpoint purchase verification | 68.5% | ≥60% | Met |
| Endpoint completion | 74.2% | ≥40% | Met |
| Primary measurement | available | Available | Met |
| Manipulation review | Passed | Passed | Met |
Established not earned: endpoint verification is 68.5% < 70%.
- Claim assessment
- held up
- 112
- partly held up
- 39
- did not hold up
- 20
- unable to assess
- 7
- no response
- 6
- Product lifecycle status
- still using
- 160
- stopped using
- 12
- returned
- 6
- cancelled
- 0
- resold
- 0
- replaced
- 6
Record record_luma revision v0.4 · protocol protocol_luma_time_reduction_v0_3 v0.3 · dataset snapshot aftelo-demo-snapshot-2026-08-04-v1-luma (new) · engine aftelo-evidence-engine-v0.4 · audit demo-audit-luma-v0.4.
Reproducibility: Deterministic paired bootstrap: seed 20260804; 10,000 resamples; percentile 2.5th/97.5th bounds.
Download the Luma v0.4 reproducibility bundle
Correction history: v0.2: Earlier point-estimate calculation retained separately. v0.3: Uncertainty-aware state introduced; primary interval unavailable. v0.4: Synthetic row-level snapshot and deterministic paired bootstrap calculated.
View immutable v0.2 revision · View immutable v0.3 revision · View immutable v0.4 revision
Methodology v0.3 · August 4, 2026. Verification, primary outcome, evidence strength and participant-reported patterns are separate measures.